Our top five models all agree that the trough of low pressure that was expected to turn the hurricane to the north late this week will be too weak to do so, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. This “blocking ridge” is likely to block Florence’s forward progress.
Florence is expected to stall and wander near or over the coast for as many as four days, potentially becoming the “Harvey of the East Coast”, dumping prodigious amounts of rain. If a significant portion of the storm’s circulation remains over water, as occurred last year with Hurricane Harvey’s stall over Southeast Texas—or even if Florence were to move into the higher terrain of western North Carolina and then stall—the rain from Florence may break all-time state records https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Rapidly-Intensifying-Likely-Hit-North-or-South-Carolina-Thursday
Holy… Florence is a beast. https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1039196618287808514
View from International Space Station https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1039130947289894915
Kerry Emanuel, Expert on Strong Hurricanes and the Future (2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5kWuVHQxfA
Governor Henry McMaster, Statewide Officials Give Tropical Storm Florence Update September 8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20Y_W2OXbvA
Additional footage via The Weather Channel, CNN, Pixabay
The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months. For more detail, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/?cid=001yt25.
The next video will be available Thursday 30 March 2017.
Our ENSO Outlook is updated every two weeks at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/?cid=001yt26.
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You can also follow the Bureau of Meteorology on Facebook, LinkedIn, and on Twitter at @BOM_au. We also have a BOM Weather app.
The end-of-month Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months. It includes a wrap-up of recent conditions and a look at which drivers are influencing our climate. Read more at http://ow.ly/eYPe30nuixX.
Our first look at likely conditions for April–June 2019 will be available on Thursday 14 March.
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