Nigel Farage on Brexit may be stopped, need to run EU elections, new party (18Jan19)

Former UKIP party leader Nigel Farage talks about the current state of Brexit, and thinks it is likely it will be halted via Article50, the likelihood of having to run European Elections, and therefore the need to setup a new party to contest them. Oh, and UKIP is finished.

Recorded from BBC News Channel HD, 18 January 2019.


My Deal or no Brexit says Theresa May!

Still pushing her doomed deal, the PM gave a speech in Stoke-on-Trent this morning where the message is now becoming: it’s either my deal or, if not, the more likely outcome is parliamentary paralysis leading to no Brexit.

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The Prime Minister, Theresa May, has changed her mantra from ‘her deal or no deal’, to ‘her deal or no Brexit’.

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She said that there were those in Westminster who would use “every device available to them” in order to “delay, or even stop, Brexit”.

Well, I think all of us could have told her that over the last two and a half years – and I also personally include her in that bracket!

In response to her speech, the UKIP leader Gerard Batten said:

“What we are witnessing is the political establishment fighting over their preferred method of stopping Brexit – should it be through Mrs May’s surrender document, a General Election or another referendum?

“In their arrogance and contempt for the will of the 17.4 million who voted to leave the European Union, the political establishment have embarrassed the nation in the eyes of the world.”

And he went on to say that if you want to leave the EU, there is no choice but to vote for UKIP at every opportunity.

Now, Mrs May will not have made a comment like this in a speech without very careful thought.

Maybe now that she’s exhausted all other avenues of support, she’s trying a last stab at getting the Brexiteers on board again with the threat that Brexit will be stopped, if they do not support her deal.

But of course all the Remainer MPs will now think ‘oh goody’ and vote her deal down and they vastly outnumber the Leave supporting MPs. So it probably won’t have achieved anything other than haemorrhaging more support.

Also there are many among the MPs who believe that if they vote down the deal today, the Eurocrats will just come up with some amendment to the legal text to the Withdrawal Agreement that puts the Irish Backstop issue to bed.

But getting anything out of the EU on this matter thus far has been like getting blood from a stone and the joint letter from Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker she received today, although full of warm words about the backstop contained nothing obvious to me you could hold up in court.

There is also the matter that, if – well actually when – any backstop issues did arise from this in the years to come, both Tusk and Juncker will be long gone and all that will stand is the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement document.

But this afternoon the PM told the House of Commons in her statement that the Attorney General has written to her today saying that the letter from Tusk and Juncker is legally binding in international law.

But for me, unless the actual text of the Withdrawal Agreement is amended, then surely the Attorney General’s original warnings of being permanently stuck in the backstop apply?

Anyway – there goes another one. Tory whip Gareth Jones, the MP for Dartford, has resigned from government because he can’t support the Prime Minister’s Brexit In Name Only (BRINO) deal.

That brings the total Brexit government casualties to thirteen – unlucky for some.

Coming the day before the expected so-called ‘meaningful vote’ the resignation of one of the people tasked to try and get it through, must be a bit embarrassing for the PM.

It looks like tomorrow evening’s vote is going to be a bit of a landslide defeat for the PM, so all she can hope to do really is limit the damage.

It doesn’t matter how badly she loses the vote, she is immune for another 11 months from an internal party challenge, but she might feel compelled to resign. It could also set in chain a vote of no confidence in her government that could force her out.

And it is reported today that Dominic Raab made a speech, which pundits say can only be viewed as a leadership pitch. Maybe the first of many to come from those Tory big-wigs eyeing Number Ten.

An interesting 48 hours to come.







Delay Brexit if Deal Rejected Grieve Tells May!

Conservative MP Dominic Grieve is on a mission to force a second EU referendum in the almost certain event that Theresa May’s doomed Brexit deal is voted out by MPs next Tuesday.

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Tory MP and former Attorney General, Dominic Grieve, has now become a bit of a front man for the Remain campaign.

He is the architect of two successful amendments to legislation that has forced the PM to speed up the Brexit process and also ensured that whatever she proposes after her deal is voted down, is amendable and can be debated.

And now he is calling for the time and date that the UK leaves the EU be removed from the Withdrawal Act and for the PM to then approach the EU to extend the Article 50 negotiation phase.

The trouble is, that is not actually possible as far as I can see.

The wording of the 2018 European Union Withdrawal Act means that a Minister of the Crown may amend the Act to ensure that the ‘exit day’ within it reflects the actual time that the EU treaties no longer apply to the UK.

So, the UK would surely have to negotiate extending Article 50 to another date and time first, and then amend the Withdrawal Act accordingly.

Amending the act itself won’t change anything as we have to get the EU to agree first with the unanimous agreement of all EU27 member states and, if just one refuses to oblige, then we will be forced out on exit day by EU law anyway – unless we revoke the Article 50 letter unilaterally before exit day and Remain in the EU. But then the Act would again be wrong as it would have a date for our leaving the EU on it and statute is to be obeyed is it not?

But bear in mind that should Article 50 be extended beyond the beginning of June 2019, then the UK will have to hold elections for new Members of the EU Parliament. And remember that the Withdrawal Act repealed the European Parliamentary Elections Act of 2002 and the European Parliament (Representation) Act of 2003 – these would need to be resurrected.

So, we’d either be going for an extension of about eight weeks to tidy things up and ensure we had left by then, or more probably the push would be a for a meaty extension of one or two years.

Now, speculation that the PM might be angling for an Article 50 extension despite her constant statements that we will be leaving the EU whatever on the 29th March, have been given a boost by the news that all the Tory MEPs have been summoned to Downing Street.

Downing Street has claimed this meeting is just normal procedure.

Or they could be there to be told that she is delaying the meaningful vote again.

And the Article 50 extension speculation has also been heightened by claims that ministers do not now have enough time in the parliamentary diary to get all of the legislation required to leave the EU through the system.

This could, of course, just be Remainer ministers trying it on, but you have to remember all of the games the Remainers, like Dominic Grieve, will be playing with those bills to try and stymie Brexit – with the added procedural nudge now and again from an anti-Brexit Speaker no doubt.

And there has, of course been a lot of talk about parliament needing to come up with its own Brexit plan when Theresa May’s deal is voted down. But there are already two main plans in the minds of MPs – apart of course from the usual Canada +++ or Norway models or derivatives of same, that have no real support base at all.

No, as I see it, the two main plans swirling around Westminster that will, in the end, have to be chosen between, are Leave on WTO terms or Remain.

That’s really it. The rest I think is all window dressing.

And in depressing news, two of the big donors to the Leave campaign, Peter Hargreaves and Crispin Odey, are now saying that they fear that the UK will never leave the EU.

I don’t personally share their pessimism, as the Remainers would still have a huge mountain to climb to prevent us slipping by default into a WTO exit once May’s deal is dispatched with.









Corbyn tells May to get a Brexit Customs Union!

Jeremy Corbyn says that once her deal is voted down, Theresa May should go back to Brussels to get a Brexit deal that Labour can support and as far as he’s concerned, that would include a full customs union with the European Union.

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The Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has told Theresa May to return to Brussels after her deal gets thrown out by parliament, to get a new deal with the EU that includes a full customs union arrangement.

And he made it clear that he intends that his party will vote against a no-deal Brexit and vote down Theresa May’s deal.

Now, if and almost certainly when, Theresa May’s deal does get voted down, there has been talk that she’ll have another go at getting it through the Commons.
How long does Corbyn think it will take to get the pie-in-the-sky customs union he wants that he could support? You know, the one where we are outside the EU but sit around the table with them helping to formulate their EU policy, the one where we have a customs union with the EU but can somehow still do independent trade deals around the world – that pie-in-the-sky customs union that breaks just about every EU single market rule there is.

And while all that was going on the Remainers will be in hyperdrive panic mode doing all they can to block a no-deal Brexit as well as get Article 50 extended or get the Article 50 letter unilaterally revoked by the UK government, which would of course be incendiary as it completely reverses Brexit so is against the manifesto commitments of both the Conservative and Labour parties and more importantly totally ignores the 2016 EU referendum result.

All I can say is that due to the actions of the Remainers, this is going to get very, very messy indeed in the next few weeks!

Now, one question you often hear, is how long can the Euro last?

And on that, the Centre for Economic and Business Research (or CEBR) says in its predictions for 2019 that:

“The year when the internal contradictions of the Euro force the EU either to integrate economically or to risk the break up of the Eurozone is coming up – it is possible to defer the confrontation for a year or two but the boil will have to be lanced at some point since the Italians have clearly reached the point of austerity fatigue.”

Now, Sadiq Khan’s London basically thumbed its nose at the rest of the United Kingdom with its New Year fireworks display.

In a blatantly political message Khan told us all where his true allegiance lies, and as far as I’m concerned it is not with the UK.

Having watched the firework display, which used the London Eye as its centre piece, I was gobsmacked at the anti-Brexit message it tried to put across.

And when Theresa May says in her New Year’s message that it was the referendum that divided us, my answer is no it did not!

The divide started the day the UK entered into the Common Market while its successive governments busied themselves with the dismantling of the UK and the hollowing out of its political establishment so that it could be handed over Brussels.

And when the politicians no longer had enough paper to cover the cracks of that divide, they put it to the people in the form of the 2016 EU referendum.

The referendum came about because of the ever deepening divide within the UK over our involvement with the EU.

And now the Labour Party is beginning to feel the pressure of that divide.

The party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, upset many of the Labour members and supporters when he recently declared that, if he got into Number Ten, he would see Brexit through.

But this is ‘seriously at odds’ with the grassroots of Labour says Professor Tim Bale, of Queen Mary University London.




Cebr’s Top Ten for 2019







Theresa May Begging Brussels for Brexit Help!

Poor old Theresa May hasn’t had a rest this festive season it seems, as she has spent her time talking Irish backstop to anyone in the EU who will listen.

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First things first, with just 88 days to go to the day the UK exits the European Union, in my final video of 2018, I just want to wish a happy and prosperous Brexit new year to everyone and especially my Patreon patrons.

Now back to Brexit!

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, has spent her Christmas, we are told, badgering her EU27 counterparts, begging them for some sort of assurances over the Irish backstop issue, that might satisfy all those MPs who intend to vote her deal down.

And the Prime Minister’s spokesperson said:

“She has been in contact with European counterparts over the break, and you can expect more of that to continue over the week.”

But it had to be conceded that nothing yet has been forthcoming.

In fact this would make a great comedy sketch wouldn’t it? With the UK PM phoning Brussels from Number Ten to find that the lone EU Commission switchboard operator has got totally fed up with her constant badgering and put her through to the Janitor first whose name just happens to be Jean-Claude. Could be an interesting conversation.

Anyway, so no Irish backstop goodies under the old Christmas tree for our Theresa then?

And with under three weeks to go until the day of reckoning of the vote on her deal, does she really think that there will be enough movement from the Eurocrats that will save her bacon?

Or is she just going to continue to plough the no-deal project fear furrow in the hope that enough MPs will succumb?

The problem for her on this though, is that once she’s ratcheted up project fear to the extremes against the no-deal option in order to try and push her own deal through, then it makes it very difficult to suddenly climb down and do an about turn and say that actually WTO (World Trade Organisation) is fine, after her deal is inevitable rejected.

But then again, she is the Queen of U-Turns having ditched ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ and gone back on pronouncements that no PM would ever sign up to anything that endangers the cohesiveness of the United Kingdom. So who can tell whet she’ll do.

Now, while the likes of the International Trade secretary, Liam Fox, tries to persuade his fellow MPs to back Theresa May’s Brexit In Name Only (BRINO) deal, the US Ambassador to the UK, Woody Johnson, warns that the suggested quick, massive, bilateral UK/US trade deal will not be possible, if her deal is voted through.

There can be no greater indictment of Theresa May’s misbegotten Brexit In name Only proposals, than having the US Ambassador to the UK telling you that her deal will prevent the UK and the USA entering quickly into this massive bilateral trade deal.

The Ambassador, Woody Johnson, also said that the UK was in need of leadership, something that I must say has not gone unnoticed here in the UK.

Talking to the BBC Radio 4 Today programme he did also say that a good UK/US deal could be the precursor to doing deals around the world, that would, as he put it, take the UK ‘way, way into an exciting new world’.

But as far as he could see, Theresa May’s deal would not be the route to that outcome.

And he is by no means alone in that thinking.

And that is why so many true Brexiteers are against her wretched proposals.

Now the US Ambassador was also surprised at the level of ‘defeatism’ he has been seeing in the UK over Brexit.

“All of the reporting looks back and it looks at a very static future, – he said – rather than an active British future – about solving problems, entrepreneurialism and taking advantage of opportunities and being very innovative.”

And he added that we were “….leaving out the great thing that Britain has to offer and that is all of the people and all of their efforts and their ability to solve problems. If you factor that in, I think the future is extremely positive, extremely bright.” He said.

This is something that Brexiteers feel in their hearts and understand, it’s just a pity that the Remain campaigners can see nothing in our future except abject servitude to an undemocratic EU superstate.

But hopefully, once we’ve left and got over the initial few hiccups, the Remainers will come to realise that being an independent sovereign nation has its advantages and that those advantages far outweigh being told what to do from afar by people who do not understand the UK and its needs.